What is this Government shutdown on? Dan explains it instead:

The reports I see make all this government shutdown business seem very complicated. But it is not, in the simplest and most direct way. This battle boils down to one thing: your money.

Republicans want to use your money for tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and more border control agents — among other things. Democrats, seizing a rare political opportunity, are trying to claw back some money for millions of people who rely on health care coverage provided by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare.

This is not some political penny-pincher battle, but a battle over a significant increase in insurance premiums for tens of millions of people. . . .

The ACA provides subsidies to each state to defray the cost of health insurance. These subsidies were expanded and extended by President Joe Biden during the pandemic, but will expire at the end of 2025. Since 2021, the expansion of subsidies has helped lower premiums, causing enrollment to swell from 11 million people to 24 million.

If the subsidies are not extended permanently or even temporarily—it would be seen as something Republicans have objected to so far—health insurance premiums will increase by 114% on average, and four million enrollees will be forced to opt out because they won’t be able to afford it, according to the nonpartisan health policy research group, Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF).

The New York Times I calculated that a 55-year-old couple making $85,000 a year would see their premiums triple to $24,535 a year. People living in red states will be disproportionately affected, with those in Texas being the most vulnerable. More than a million Texans will lose coverage, according to KFF.

Democrats say Trump’s big, beautiful bill is anything but, because it would pay 7.8 million Americans off Medicaid, according to the Congressional Budget Office. They may have gone to the ACA marketplace to find affordable insurance, but it won’t be affordable for everyone if the subsidies disappear. . . .

So, although it may feel like déjà vu all over again, this government shutdown is different — even from the other three Trump presided over, because the outcome could mean a reversal of a trend that means more Americans are locked out than ever before. . . .

With the 2026 midterms coming up, Democrats are keeping Republicans’ feet to the political fire, with a reasonable hope of success. It’s risky to let millions lose health insurance and force additional millions to swallow a huge premium increase to keep them up, months before the most important congressional elections in US history — especially if Republicans can’t convincingly point the finger at Democrats. . . .

As with everything in Trump’s orbit, normal rules don’t apply. What worked with the previous lockdown may not move the needle this time. But for the first time since January 20, Democrats have a chance to get something they want, something most Americans want, too.