Previous, targeted and expected shares of Chinese energy, by source, percent. Source: Sinopec Economic and Development Research Institute, Xi’s 2035 Pledge Speech.

Recently interview with Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress – The highest body of the State Legislative Council in China – Minister of Environment Huang Ronqiu He said Progress in achieving China’s previous goal of increasing the share of non-fossil energy in energy consumption was “broadly in line” with the “expected pace” of the 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions.

On wind and solar, China’s 2030 National Contribution Plan pledged to raise installed capacity to more than 1,200 gigawatts — a target analysts said at the time. Carbon Brief He was likely to be beaten. It was duly done meet Six years ago, with the ability Standing At 1,680 GW until the end of July 2025.

Xi set a target for 2035 to reach 3,600 gigawatts of wind and solar power.

This seems ambitious to me Other countries The global capacity is about 3000 gigawatts in the total As of 2024, but it represents a significant slowdown from the recent pace of growth.

Given its current capacity, China will need to install about 200 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity annually and 2,000 gigawatts in total to reach the 2035 target. However 360 GW installed In 2024 and 212 gigawatts of solar energy Alone in the first half of this year.

This pace of additions “is not even enough to reach peak emissions (in the energy sector) unless energy demand growth slows significantly,” Mylvirta tells Carbon Summary.

While the pace of demand growth poses a major uncertainty, it is recent He studies by Michael R. DavidsonAssociate Professor at University of California, San DiegoHe and his colleagues at Tsinghua University suggest that deploying 2,910 to 3,800 gigawatts of wind and solar power by 2035 would be consistent with a 2°C warming trajectory.

“Most experts within China do not see (recent) growth of 300+ GW per year as sustainable,” Davidson tells Carbon Summary. However, he adds that the lower levels outlined in his study could be consistent with a 40 percent reduction in power sector emissions by 2035, subject to caveats about whether new capacity is well-located and appropriately integrated:

“We found that 40 percent emissions reductions in the energy sector could be supported by 3,000-3,800 GW of wind and solar capacity (by 2035). Most capacity models are actually based on resource integration and quality.”

China’s share of renewable energy consumption has lagged behind its standard capacity installations, largely due to… Challenges With the modernization of network infrastructure and Economic incentives That traps coal-fired energy.

In Davidson’s study, capacity growth of up to 3,800 gigawatts would see wind and solar power reach about 40 percent of total power generation by 2030 and 50 percent by 2035.

At the same time, China will need to do so Steady About 10,000 gigawatts of wind and solar energy will be needed to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, according to a separate report by the Energy Research Institute, a Chinese government think tank.

What does China say about non-CO2 emissions?

This is the first time that one of China’s NDC pledges explicitly covers emissions of greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide.

However, while Xi’s speech made clear that China’s main emissions target for 2035 would cover gases other than carbon dioxide, such as methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases, he did not provide further details on whether the NCC would set specific targets for these emissions.

In its 2030 NDCs, China stated that it would “strengthen control of emissions of major greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide,” including through new control policies, but did not include a quantitative emissions reduction target.

In preparation for a comprehensive greenhouse gas emission target, China has issued action plans to achieve a comprehensive target Methane, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs, one type of F gas) and Nitrous oxide.

The nitrous oxide business plan, published earlier this month, Named to reduce emissions per unit production of specific chemicals to a “world-leading level” by 2030, but did not set comprehensive limits.

Likewise, the Comprehensive Methane Action Plan, issued in late 2023, included Many key tasks were to reduce emissions in the energy, agriculture and waste sectors, but they lacked numerical emissions reduction targets.

A subsequent rule change in December 2024 tightened waste gas requirements for coal mines. Under the new rules, Reuters According to reports, any coal mine that emits “methane emissions of 8 percent or higher” must capture the gas, use it or destroy it — down from the previous threshold of 30 percent.

But analysts believe the real challenge in methane emissions from coal mines may come from… Abandoned minesIt is one study Foundhave risen in the past ten years and are likely to overtake emissions from active coal mines to become the primary source of methane emissions in the coal sector.

As the demand for coal can face “Structural deterioration“, the number of abandoned mines is expected to grow significantly.

At the same time, the HFC Plan set quantitative targets. The country aims to reduce HFC production by 2029 by 10 percent from the 2024 baseline of 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, while consumption will also be reduced by 10 percent from the baseline of 0.9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in this time frame – in line with China’s commitments under the Paris Agreement. Kigali Amendment to Montreal Protocol On ozone protection.

Starting in 2026, China will “ban” the production of refrigerators and freezers that use HFC refrigerants.

However, the business plan Doesn’t judge China exports products that use HFCs – a significant source of emissions.

This story was published with permission from Carbon Brief.