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The lack of job data due to the government’s closure of the economy
Written by Christopher Roger, economist AP
WASHINGTON (AP) – From Wall Street floors circulated to the federal reserves to economists who consume coffee in their home offices, on Friday morning, the first of the month is usually Monthly job report.
But with the government closing, no information was issued on Friday about employment in September.
Data interruption occurred in a Especially not confirmed timeWhen policymakers in the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, do investors You need more data On the economy, instead of less. Employment has almost stopped, threatening to withdraw the wider economy. However, at the same time, they are consumers-especially high-income people- Spend Some companies intensify investments in data centers that develop artificial intelligence models. Whether this is sufficient to revive the employment still must be seen.
It is the first time since the government was closed in 2013 that delayed the job report. During the partial government closure 2018-2019, the Ministry of Labor was one of the many agencies that remained open because Congress agreed to its financing. September job numbers will be released in the end, as soon as the closure is over.
If the closure lasts for another week or more, it can also postpone the release of other prominent data, including the following inflation report, which was appointed on October 15.
The Trump administration blamed Democrats in the Senate for closing, while Democrats are of similar charges against the White House.
“Companies, families, policymakers, markets and even federal reserves are blind to a major turning point in the economic emission of America because the closure of the Democrats government has stopped the launch of the major economic data,” said Kush Disai, Kush Desai spokesman.
After President Donald Trump himself Often government jobs are limited When you paint an exciting image of the economy. In August, Fire I informed the head of the work statistics office at the time after the agency reported that the job gains in May and June were sharply less than what I mentioned earlier.
At the present time, economists resort to alternative measures for the labor market provided by non -profit organizations and private sector companies. These measures mostly show a labor market with a little employment, but not many layoffs, too. It seems that those who are often safe jobs, while those looking for work spend a tougher time.
ADP salary lists, for example, He said Wednesday His appreciation showed that the economy had lost 32,000 jobs in the private sector last month. ADP found that companies in the construction, manufacturing and financial services industries reduce all jobs. Restaurants and hotels, and professional services such as accounting and engineering, get rid of workers.
ADP said that companies in health care, private education and information technology are the only sectors that add workers.
“We have seen a significant decrease in hiring momentum throughout the year,” said ADP. “This is consistent with low rental-even low economy-and the low economy.”
Austan Golsby, before he became president of the Federal Reserve in Chicago in January 2023, was one of these economists who are busy on the morning of Friday, the first of the month, and often dissect the CNBC financial news network data. Now he is still examining the data on Friday morning and has a team of economists who analyze the report.
“The best data – BLS numbers are the best labor market numbers in the world,” Goldby said in an interview with Associated Press. “And when we do not have, we are suffering.”
Only last month, the Federal Reserve in Chicago began its issuance Special estimates From the unemployment rate and other job market indicators, using a range of public and private sector data, which are updated every two weeks. On Thursday, its latest numbers put the unemployment rate in September by 4.3 %, as is the case in August and is still historically low.
Goolsbee said that Fed in Chicago prefers to focus more on rates, such as unemployment number, layoffs and employment rates, as an indicator of stagnation, because it is affected by changes in immigration patterns and American workforce aging from total changes in jobs.
However, while there are alternative measures for employment and unemployment, there are fewer sources of information about inflation, which the Federal Reserve is accused of maintaining stable and low. Prices have increased in recent months of many imported goods, most of them due to the customs tariff, but Goolsbee said he was closely monitoring inflation in services, which erupted in the past two months. The higher services prices are a possible sign that inflation is spreading beyond the imported products only.
Golsby is keen to see the following inflation report to see if the direction is continuing. “This makes the government closed, and the lack of BLS data is much more,” said Goolsbee.
On Friday, the exhibition management institute, a commercial group of purchasing managers, issued its monthly report on economic activity in the services sector, which includes everything from banks to restaurants to retail stores to storage and cover about 90 % of the economy. Its index decreased to 50, from 52, with 50 division line between contraction and expansion. This means that the service sector activity did not change last month.
But the services companies reduced employment in the fourth month in a row, and the ISM poll found, indicating that job gains remained weak last month.
It was originally published:
Lack of jobs data due to government shutdown muddies view of hiring and the US economy



