The contribution of oil and gas companies to increasing the average global surface temperatures during 1950-2023, compared to an average of 1850-1900. Each color indicates a company, while Ramadi refers to other temperature sources. Source: Haustein (2025).

The recorded heat waves were more than 2000-23, on average, more hot due to climate change, according to the study. The authors find that the emissions arising from the carbon specialties and their products contributed about half of the increase in the intensity of the thermal waves that have been seen since then Pre -industry times.

Then the authors dismantle the contribution of emissions from every specialty in carbon on each heat wave in their analysis.

For example, they found that the emissions associated with Saudi Aramco made 51 thermal waves at least 10,000 times. They add it to an average, that the company’s emissions made 213 heat waves 0.04 degrees Celsius more hot.

The legal procedure

Attribution studies are already an important role in Courts By providing evidence that helps judges determine responsibility.

Dr. Robert Stewart Smith He is a co -researcher in climate and law at Oxford University Sustainable law program. He did not participate in the study, but it was a separate publication a job It turns out that the emissions associated with each of the six largest partnerships caused one heat -related death in Zurich alone, every summer.

Stuart-Smith Carbon Brief tells that the new paper is “a high-quality analysis and a meaningful step forward for the field of changing climate change.” He adds:

“With more and more lawsuits that aim to bear the high -emission companies responsible for their contributions to the effects of climate change or forcing actors in the state and companies to reduce their emissions and prevent high climate damage, work like this provides the basis for taking enlightened judicial decisions.”

Dr. Jan Kelekail He is a researcher in Eth Zürich And the author of the study leadership. And he emphasizes the importance of supporting the court cases, and he told the brief carbon that he hopes his work “can be used by legal practitioners.”

However, he also says that his role as a scientist is not a “responsibility” for climate change, but “providing information to governments to make decisions and courts to litigate.”

Earlier this year, Dr. Christopher CalhanThe main investigator of IU Climate & Society LabPublish a Ticket with Professor Justin McCainAssociate Professor in the Department of Geography in Dthmouth UniversityWhich connects the trillion dollars from economic losses with severe heat resulting from emissions related to oil and gas companies.

Mankin Brief tells that the new paper is “closely” linked to his research.

Kalhan says that the new paper is “an important contribution to emerging literature, which shows how individual gates can be linked to the risk of extremist climatic conditions and human effects.”

He explains that “this type of evidence will be important in the court halls – the accountability of legal gates requires the show of a causal bond between this emitter and the appointed damage that the plaintiff suffered.”

Attribution

The advanced field for Hald weather chain He seeks to establish the role played by the warming that a person causes in these events. Support studies have been conducted on hundreds of heat waves around the world, as shown in the carbon interaction Map.

The new paper uses one of the first and most used methods of support, called “The probability isnading“.

Specifically, he uses the way he selected Global weather support “Its Quick Support” initiative Analyzes.

The authors first chose the “threshold” temperature to determine their heat wave.

Then they used my world Climate To simulate two worlds-one of which reflects the world as it was during the heat wave and the other using the climate of 1850-1900. This second scenario is used to represent climate in a world without climate change caused by a person.

The authors are running thousands of times in each scenario. Since the world’s climate is messy by its nature, every “operation” model – an individual simulation of how the climate is progressing over many years – produces a little different progress from temperatures. This means that some of the heat wave simulation runs, while others do not.

The authors calculate the number of times when the threshold temperature was operating. Then compare the possibility of crossing the world’s threshold temperature with – and a world without – climate change.

For example, they find that 2021 Pacific North-West Heatwave 3.1 degrees Celsius has been made more hot due to the climate change caused by a person and more than 10,000 times more likely.

(A. Ticket Through World War I at the time of the heat wave, I found that the thermal wave was 150 times more likely. The contradiction is due to the difference in the definition of the event, as well as its “very unlikely nature” according to the authors of the study.)

Dr. Friedrich Auto He is a professor in London Empire College And the founder of the Second World War Initiative. Carbon Brief tells that the new study “is very similar to some other recent studies on influences, based on the method of assigning the risks used by World War I”, but says that “this is the most amazing and wide range.”

Auto adds:

“I hope you follow many studies to support influence, based on our studies or other studies to support extremist events. We need more research on this.”

This story was published with permission from Carbon summary.